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April 13, 1997 |
Wait and watch
The party has been forced to play a marginal role in the present political drama
The united Front government is on dialysis. Both kidneys are refusing to respond to treatment. It cannot expect to live long." declared BJP spokesman Kishan Lal Sharma in Delhi. Considering that V.P. Singh, mentor of the UF and one of its key troubles hooters now, was undergoing dialysis at the Apollo Hospital a few kilometres away, the remark seemed needlessly offensive.
It was, perhaps, a sign of the growing frustration within the BJP at the marginal role it is forced to play in the present political drama.
Until April 11 the BJP can do little but wait and watch. Neither the Congress nor any of the UF constituents have approached it for support. So much so the party which began by summoning all its senior leaders to the capital on March 30, stopped the daily formal meetings after April 1: there was nothing to discuss.
Atal Bihari Vajpayee and L.K. Advani have been communicating on the telephone with UF and Congress leaders, but there have been no formal meetings. The BJP is now concentrating upon its national executive meeting on April 5 and 6, whose venue has been shifted from Thiruvananthapuram to Delhi, while its strategy in the Lok Sabha on the day the Deve Gowda government seeks its vote of confidence will be decided at a meeting scheduled for the previous day.
Given the BJP's political position and record in the present Parliament, it has little choice but to oppose the motion. But in a bid to aggravate the confusion among its rivals. BJP leaders have refused to commit themselves on how the party will vote. "We will fulfill our role as the principal opposition party," repeated Sushma Swaraj, but stubbornly refused to declare unequivocally that the BJP would oppose the confidence motion.
"We will not support either the Congress or the UF," said K.L. Sharma. When it was pointed out that voting against the UF amounted to joining hands with the Congress, and vice versa, Sharma evaded the issue.
Even if it does not vote of the motion, it could ensure enough abstentions to enable the UF to scrape through. Thereafter the UF would be dependent on the BJP, which could then choose its most opportune time for a mid-term poll.
Though the BJP leaders' ambivalence is responsible for these rumours, they hotly deny them. "These rumours are harming us. They are confusing and demoralising our workers," said a BJP MP from Delhi. "After the way we have opposed the UF's policies, how can we support its continuance?"
A confidant of the top BJP leaders revealed, however, that the effort was simply to add to the confusion. "We want to give the impression that we are keeping our options open, so as to let the Congress and UF believe whatever they want to believe, " he stated. Nor was the worried about the effect on BJP workers. "It is curious how journalists, most of them anti-BJP, are so concerned about the effect of our statements on BJP workers. Our workers understand the compulsions of politics.
According to the BJP, there are three possible scenarios: a patch-up between the Congress and the UF, in which case the government will continue as before; a BJP-led government with the support of regional parties; or fresh elections.
If Deve Gowda's government is voted out the BJP expects to be given a change to form the government again. "The President is bound to call us since we are the largest single party and, along with our allies, constitute by far the largest group," said Pramod Mahajan.
Once Deve Gowda falls, the BJP believes, many constituents of the UF will not stand with it as firmly as they are doing now. "The existence of parties like the Samjawadi Party and Janata Dal depends upon opposing the BJP," said a senior BJP leader. "We expect nothing from them. But for most regional parties a tie-up with the BJP could be a viable option. There is no reason to think they would reject it out of hand."
But here too a hitch might arise for the party. At their meeting on March 30, the day the Congress withdrew support, BJP leaders had passed a resolution calling upon the President to ask Gowda to prove his majority in Parliament immediately, or quit. They sought--and were given--time for a meeting with the President the next day. But before they could meet came the news that the President had asked Gowda to prove his majority by April 7 (later extended to April 11).
Vajpayee and Advani none the less kept their appointment with the President. They suggested to him that the majority claim of any party or group be verified before inviting it to form the government. If the Gowda government does fall, this stipulation will apply to the BJP as well!
Once sworn in, as Vajpayee had been last May, The BJP might attract some regional parties once the latter realised that no UF combination was likely to be formed which could command a majority. (Even in such circumstances, some BJP leaders, including Advani, have cautioned against accepting office hurriedly. without a firm commitment from likely allies, so as not to repeat the fiasco of May 1996.)
But without being in power it will be no mean talk for the BJP to obtain the open support of the likes of the Telugu Desam or Asom Gana Parishad who have to think about the effect of such an alliance on the sizeable muslim populations in their respective states.
Lastly: elections. "We had always said that the government would not last long, and mid-term polls would soon be called," said Susham Swaraj. "If we are proved right at this juncture, we shall certainly not fight shy of elections."
"Even if some patch-up between the Congress and UF leaders takes place, we are convinced that the new government will have a still shorter life," maintained K.L. Sharma, BJP leaders believe that the short-lived UF experiment will induce large number of voters throughout the country to consider the virtues of stability, which only a BJP government, with a proper majority, can offer.
"In a sense the political parties in the present drama can be divided into those who are ready for polls and those who are not," said a BJP leader. "In the former group are the BJP and most of the regional parties. In the second are the Congress, the JD and the SP. All three know they will do worse than before in the changed circumstances.
DEBASHISH MUKERJI
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