April 13, 1997

Locked in tug of war
Virtually every UF leader has ruled out a leadership change, but are not sure how long they can hold on

No numerologist had told the believers in the United Front that Sitaram Kesri always believed in Sunday bests. Be it appointing the first Mandal recruit when he was welfare minister, or holding crucial working committee meetings, Kesri had always kept them for Sundays to best his rivals.

The Easter of 1997 was calculated to be his best Sunday. The egg that he cracked turned out to be a bombshell for the nine-month-old United Front government.

Few days prior to that Easter, one among the 13 was said the have betrayed the Lord. But who?

Suspicions fell first on Mulayam Singh, G.K. Moopanar and Laloo Yadav. Could any of them have assured Kesri of support to form a Congress-led coalition?

The suspicions were reasonable. Moopanar, an old Congressman, had been sounded out many times by the Kesri-led Congress which was appealing to all prodigals to return. And it was only days earlier that K. Karunakaran, believed to be one of the chief plotters, had called on Moopanar.

Mulayam had been peeved at being virtually isolated in his Uttar Pradesh backyard following the BJP-BSP marriage. Laloo, never a wellwisher of Gowda, was getting vengeful after being hounded by Gowda's policemen in the CBI.

But as doomsday loomed over them, the leaders refrained from handing out condemnations of one another. "That would only have kept the Congress mouth watered," explained a senior Janata Dal leader. "Our wisest decision so far was taken on the first day--that we would not even hint that someone among us had been a traitor."

Instead, the leaders who rushed to the beleaguered Prime Minister's house that afternoon appealed to every Front leader to give out unity statements. And everyone played to the script. The quick decision not to resign ensured that even the black sheep, if any, would stay with the flock till the floor test. No one wanted to be marked at least till then.

But it was V.P. Singh who advised against attempts to break the Congress which he said would only further provoke Kesri and even moderates in that party. Instead, talk to the Congress leaders and make them see reason, he advised.

At the same time, Front leaders were also to interact among themselves so that no one got any wrong idea. "We have been demonstrating how united we are," said Janata Dal president Sharad Yadav. "We have shown them that the UF is intact and the Janata Dal is united." The steering committee meetings too followed the script. Congress was requested to reconsider its stand.

"Our attempt is only to make the Congress see reason," explained Front spokesman Jaipal Reddy.

The UF is trying to drill in hard logic into the Congress mind. "It is dangerous for all of us if the secular forces are divided," said Samajwadi Party leader Mulayam Singh Yadav. Added his lieutenant, Amar Singh: "It is only the BJP that wants elections now. If the Congress wants to help them, they can hang themselves."

Combined with that was threat of dissolution. If the Front stood together and resisted poaching from Congress ranks, the President after exploring every possibility would ultimately be compelled to dissolve the Lok Sabha and order elections.

Front leaders expect that this dual threat--of BJP and of an immediate election--should slowly be working on Congress minds. Pointed out a Janata Dal leader: "Of the three, the BJP is the best prepared for elections, though not as much as they would like to be. Next comes the United Front, after nine months of government. The Congress is the least prepared. It has not done any ground work in the last nine months. That itself should make them reconsider the decision."

The biggest source of strength for the Front have been the regional leaders. Most of them have fighting the Congress in their states and it would be suicidal for them to ally with the Congress at the Centre. Despite his disagreements with Gowda on the Alamatti dam issue, Chandrababu Naidu of the Telugu Desam made it clear that his political future at no time can be tied to the Congress. "This has been a federal government. No Congress government has been so fair to the states," he said.

The fact is that neither Naidu nor Karunanidhi nor Mahanta could share a power table with the Congress. "The raison d'etre of these parties is anti-congressism in their respective states," said Jaipal Reddy. "Similarly the raison d'etre of the United Front is its consistent opposition to communal forces." In other words, the only way that both could be combined was to continue with a United Front government, supported by the Congress from outside and keep fighting the BJP.

That much has been made clear by the leftists too. They too have been fighting the Congress in West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura and this fight has resulted in secular forces occupying both the ruling and opposition slots. "Most Front partners are anti-Congress," explained Sharad Yadav. "They cannot think of combining with the Congress." The moment the two come together, BJP would raise its head in these states. As expected, the CPI(M) politburo and the CPI leadership have ruled out support to a Congress-led government.

The combined weight of the arguments, the Front leaders believe, would make the Congress realise one thing: that the only possible arrangement to fight the common enemy and also to survive in the new political context is to continue with the present arrangement.

But then, UF leaders also realise that the Congress would have to be helped out of the impasse. It would have to be given a face-saving formula. That is where the Front leaders are in a fix. They still do not have one. According to one Front leader, the informal talks since the second day have been to chart out a decent route for the Congress to retreat.

What CPI(M) leader Harkishan Singh Surjeet offered appeared too small even to Front leaders. Surjeet offered a mechanism to redress the frequently aired Congress grievances. But other Front leaders do not expect the Congress to be satisfied with that. "We have to recognise that Congress ego has been wounded. Offering sops like a grievance cell would only make the wounds bleed," said a UF leader.

What then would the Congress be satisfied with? Kesri's later statement, accusing Deve Gowda individually of facilitating the rise of communal forces in Uttar Pradesh, has been interpreted as a climbdown. But the climbdown has not exactly reassured the Front. For they fear that the Congress would ask for Gowda's scalp in lieu of its continued support to a UF government.

This, incidentally, has turned out to be the Front's weak heel. Virtually every Front leader has ruled out a change of leadership, but are not sure how long they can hold on. Especially if the Congress agrees to beat a decent retreat. "It is a war of attrition," said a Janata Dal leader. "In a war of attrition both sides lose some."

Gowda himself knows that the real threat to his survival is from the UF leadership conceding a decent retreat to the Congress. He is said to have raised the issue at a standing commitee meeting and the leaders had to pacify him with pledges of continued support.

However, despite their posturings to the contrary, the Front leaders too have started to think of alternatives to Gowda. Moopanar, they point out, could be acceptable to the Congress. But they do not rule out the possibility of dark horses like Ram Vilas Paswan who would satisfy Kesri's love for the Dalits.

The only revenge that the Front can exact from the Congress is bay for Kesri's head too. Interestingly, the fear of an immediate mid-term poll is such that both sides might even agree to that in the end. That could be the biggest politically irony of the year: chopping heads to save faces.

R. PRASANNAN

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