April 13, 1997

Counting Sheep

Kesri is banking on the left, a part of the Dal, the SP and the TMC joining him when Gowda loses the vote

Sitaram Kesri has stopped offering burfi to callers at his house on Purana Qila Road. It was distributed only on the evening the Congress withdrew support to the Deve Gowda government and the day after. Now all that he offers is an assurance. Even that is less sweeter than it initially was. From "Sab teek hai. Sarkar baneygee" (All is well. The government will be formed) it has been diluted to a mere "Sab teek hai".

The Congressmen who return unconvinced--their number has increased-now head for the houses of former prime minister Narasimha Rao or leader of the Congress in the Lok Sabha, Sharad Pawar. While only a few can find access to Rao, Pawar entertains all. The other well attended durbars are of Jagannath Mishra and Suresh Kalmadi.

The Kesri camp has every reason to jittery. It has no ready answer to the question how kesri will put together a Congress-led coalition and form the government. In confidence they agree "it's difficult". For public consumption they hand out the line that it's not prudent to "disclose the strategy". Evidently the chances of the Congress forming a government at the Centre have dimmed considerably and this is no secret within as well as outside the party.

To make matters worse for the Congress chief, preparations are afoot by the Rao loyalists to show him up as a bumbling ambitious person and demand his removal. Sharad Pawar's supporters, who view their leader as a challenger to Kesri, are also getting ready to call for a change in leadership and bring about a takeover.

Anti-election Congress MPs, angered by Kesri's apparently futile bid, are signing up support with both the Rao and Pawar camp managers. Both groups claim to have a list with about 40-50 names and have been meeting to assess the other's stand and for exchanging information. But they have yet to reach a formal understanding to work in tandem. This may mean common names on both the lists of MPs.

Rao and Pawar have, on the face of it, extended support to Kesri, Suresh Kalmadi and S.S. Ahluwalia, known Rao supporters, have met Kesri to promise support as have Praful Patel, P.C. Chacko and Priya Ranjan Dasmunshi from the Pawar camp. But this has not stopped them from planning and plotting against Kesri.

The Rao camp would like to press for a CWC meeting and call for Kesri's resignation the moment his name comes up in the Dr Tanvar murder case or the JMM bribery case.

There is even talk of the two groups deciding to vote to save the Deve Gowda government. This strategy has been thought of if the UF does not alter its tough stand and Kesri refuses to recall his withdrawal letter. The plan will suit the MPs who want to avoid another election.

While Kesri has asked his joint-secretaries to meet MPs in batches to seek support, he himself has been talking to his known critics. He meets Pawar regularly and has even called up his arch critic Jagannath Mishra to seek his support.

Kesri is no novice at consolidating support through any means that will bring the desired results. He has bowed, been servile, ingratiated himself and manipulated according to the demands of the situation. Over and above he is by self-confession, calculating.

Only the naive would suggest that Kesri has no strategy in mind to form a Congress-led government and above all become Prime Minister. He is now banking on the Left, a part of the Janata Dal, Mulayam Singh's Samajwadi Party and most important, the TMC breaking the UF to join him when Gowda is defeated on the floor of the house. By his calculations, this will give him the required numbers before the President can call the BJP as the single largest party to form the government.

He, however, sees in Sonia his best strategy and saviour. If she accepts his request to plunge into active Congress politics, there is no stopping the party from succeeding. A word from her can put pressure on G.K. Moopanar of the TMC as well as bring all Congressmen to accept Kesri as Gowda's replacement.

Yet things have not gone Kesri's way from the moment he announced the withdrawal of support. He anticipated that President Shankar Dayal Sharma would immediately call for Gowda's resignation. This would have, according to his gameplan, sent the UF constituents into his lap for the Congress to form the government. The first blow to Kesri came when the President gave Gowda time and later more of it.

His party colleagues and senior leaders are now questioning the timing of the withdrawal. Some felt that the long CBI interrogation to which Kesri was subjected the day before in the Dr Tanvar murder case brought about the surprise decision. But others said Kesri was aware of the "humiliation and trouble" Congressmen were being subjected to in non-Congress states by ruling UF factions. He himself reportedly felt that Gowda was targeting Congress leaders with corruption and other cases.

In fact, in a climbdown from his hard line, Kesri singled out Gowda for criticism instead of all the UF constituents. With this he also made way for a compromise formula by which the congress could negotiate for a replacement for Gowda.

Kesri's paranoia that Gowda was ignoring him and talking instead to Pawar in an attempt to split the congress was also seen as a reason for withdrawing support. And when he found that Pawar was opening channels of communication with other UF leaders, the Congress chief sensed a real challenge to himself. With organisational elections round the corner, he had to do something to consolidate his position as well as pre-empt any move from Pawar's side.

What Surpised everyone was the utmost secrecy that surrounded Kesri's Easter Sunday move. One view was that Kesri kept everything under wraps because he knew that most of the leaders would have dissuaded him from going ahead at that moment.

Jetendra Prasada had no inkling of what was coming when Kesri called him late on Saturday evening and asked him to ascertain the views of CWC members on withdrawal of support. Prasada is supposed to have casually remarked that the views were well known and it was up to the chief to take a decision.

When Pranab Mukherjee received a call on Sunday morning to come over to Purana Qila Road he responded within the hour. Kesri asked him to draft a letter to the President informing him of the Congress decision to withdraw support.

Kesri looked at the draft and said he would read it. When Pranab left, Kesri asked his personal staff to seek an appointment with the President.

Kesri drove to the AICC headquarters, casually asked R.K. Dhawan, whom he ran into, if he was going to be around and left.

After handing over the letter he drove home and called Prasada, Pranab and Dhawan home. He also called Pawar in Pune and asked him to come to Delhi.

The first to arrive was given the news in a short crisp sentence. "Kardiya" (I've done it). What? asked the astonished Congressman. "Withdrawn support," he replied with a smile.

All that the shocked Congressman could do was bark into his cell phone to another colleague "He has done it. Rush."

In one single stroke Sitaram Kesri unleashed a torrent of political activity. It was the beginning of manipulations, bargaining, midnight rendezvous and strategy planning meetings in the Congress too.

It remains to be seen what the acting AICC chief has led his party into.

RASHMI SAKSENA

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