April 13, 1997
THE GREAT GAMBLE Gowda & Kesri are both preparing for a mid-term poll. If Gowda hopes to fight it as the leader of the United Front, Kesri is banking on Sonia campaigning for the Congress

Indira Gandhi versus Morarji Desai, Desai versus Charan Singh, Rajiv Gandhi versus V.P. Singh, V.P. Singh versus Chandra Shekhar Narasimha Rao versus Arjun Singh and now Deve Gowda versus Sitaram Kesri.

Indian Prime Ministers have more trouble form challengers from within than from outside. Only Arjun Singh failed to take the challenge to the logical conclusion of making it to the prime ministerial gaddi. Now it is Sitaram Kesri's turn to find out whether he can mould his ambition in the hot furnace of coalition politics.

The boiling point will be reached on April 11 when the eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation between the humble farmer and the humble grocer is to take place. Prime ministers normally win the first contest but this time it could be a no-win situation.

For the octogenarian Kesri, who succeeded a septuagenarian Narasimha Rao, drawing blood of a much younger Gowda is important hwatever the consequences. The successful challenger is normally older than the incumbent.

It is a ritual which has punctuated Indian politics in the last three decades, where Prime Ministers have hardly slept peacefully, always worrying more about the enemy within than the outside challenge. Even Morarji Desai and V.P. Singh, when they failed in their internal challenge. went outside, joined hands with others to dislodge the Prime Minister. Arjun Singh went out and had the satisfaction of seeing Rao, but he could not make it to the Lok Sabha.

And ever since Kesri became the Congress president, Gowda lost whatever little sleep he was getting at night. Kesri had decided that the only way he could assert his supremacy over the Congress was by finishing Gowda and if the Congress members of the Lok Sabha were going to be uprooted from their constituencies, it was a monor price for the big gamble.

"Gowda should go" became Kesri's refrain from day one and the Congress leaders adopted this tune quickly as one after the other pradesh Congress committees adopted resolution seeking withdrawal of support.

Soon, the conflict became too personalised. Both Gowda and Kesri guffawed at jokes demeaning the other in their respective durbars. They had eight one-to-one meetings and two dozen phone conversations during six months of Kesri's leadership of the Congress, but the two came to verbal blows very early in these series of encounters.

"Nothing I do satisfies Kesri. He wants my job." was Gowda's lament. "He and Narasimha Rao are one and the same. There is no difference," was Kesri's denunciation of Gowda.

"He wants me to send Rao to jail," complained Gowda. "Why should I do it?" And Kesri said: "Gowda wants to send me to jail and finish the Congress." There was nothing polite and both waited for the opportunity to strike.

Not that there were no attempts to patch up. Apart from the famous mediatory efforts of CWC member K. Karunakaran and Civil Aviation Minister, C.M. Ibrahim, the CPI(M) General Secretary Harkishan Surjeet, Defence Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav, CWC member sharad Pawar and other well-wisher tried, but to no avail.

Kesri distrusted Gowda and Vice versa. Neither had the patience and tolerance to achieve his gameplan. Kesri could have waited for fissures to develop within the United Front and then exploited the divisions. as Indira Gandhi had done with the Janata Party and Rajiv with the Janata Dal.

Kesri was the main in a hurry, hit by paranola about his survival. And Gowda could not avoid needling him by repeatedly meeting Rao and Pawar in his bid to keep the Congress off balance.

At the personal level both Kesri and Gowda are ready for the inevitable election. Both Gowda and Kesri are in the Rajya Sabha and don't have to face a direct election! Yet the instability of the eleventh Lok Sabha is such that any hotchpotch coalition that comes out of the April 11 vote of confidence cannot last long. And it would ultimately lead to the twelfth Lok Sabha elections.

Gowda is keen on the United Front leadership, even if he were to lose the prime ministership. If a situation develops where elections become inevitable, Gowda hopes to retain the Front leadership in the ensuing mid-term elections.

His calculations tell him that the Front of 14 parties may get more regional parties and the combination can try for more seats in the 12th Lok Sabha. He would have one advantage--he would be projected as the Front leader, and if the numbers add up he could be Prime Minister again. It is not in his interest for another coalition involving the United Front to emerge within the present Lok Sabha.

Kesri's gamble has two stages. First, he would be happy to lead to a new coalition with either outside or participatory support from the parties within the United Front. He knows it is an audacious gamble.

He would obviously have to poach in the United Front, which is a very tough task considering that almost all the parties in the Front confront the Congress in their respective states--Telugu Desam in Andhra Pradesh, DMK and TMC in Tamil Nadu, Janata Dal in Orissa and Karnataka, left Front in West Bengal and Kerala and National Conference in Jammu and Kashmir, Only the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh and Janata Dal in Bihar have more formidable rivals than Congress.

But if this gameplan backfires, Kesri and his close advisers have a bigger weapon: Sonia Gandhi. Breaking a six-year sildence she has agreed to become a member of the party. But now kesri has told his close confidants that he has persuaded her to come to the aid of the party in its hour of need.

His plan is to renominate most of the sitting members and keep a firm control over the ticket distribution process. And he is certain that Sonia campaigning for the party, in an unspecified capacity, would bring back to it votes even in the Hindi heartland, where the Congress has taken repeated beatings since 1989. It won just five out of 85 seats in Uttar Pradesh and two out of 54 in Bihar. Kesri feels her presence would bring the Congress near the majority.

His poll wisdom is that since the first general elections in 1952, a Nehru-Gandhi has dominated the Congress, except in the 1996 general elections. In that election the Congress suffered its worst defeat, worse than even the 1977 washout at the hands of the Janata Party.

But prime ministerial confrontations have resulted in a jinx. Neither Desai, Charan Singh, V.P. Singh or Chandra Shekhar who became prime ministers after taking on their predecessorts, lasted the full term. Kesri is the least detered by this jinx, as long as he gets the plum he is seeking.

SACHIDANANDA MURTYY

Counting Sheep: Kesri is banking on the left, a part of the Dal, the SP and the TMC joining him when Gowda loses the vote
Locked in tug of war: Virtually every UF leader has ruled out a leadership change, but are not sure how long they can hold on
Wait and watch: The party has been forced to play a marginal role in the present political drama
Banking on budget: If the finance bill is not passed, it will deal a big blow to the economy

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