Different Designs
The BJP, by its "revolving arrangement" with the BSP, has opened a new phase of coalition politics. The aim is to gain power with the help of regional forces and end its isolation.

UTTAR PRADESH is the latest experiment in coalition politics by the Bharatiya Janata Party. "The party with a difference", as it called itself during the campaigning for the last general elections, realised that only being part of a coalition arrangement could end its isolation. But the "revolving arrangement" with Kanshi Ram's Bahujan Samaj Party gave an opportunistic twist to the experiment it began in Maharashtra, with the Shiv Sena, and extended to Haryana, with Bansi Lal's HVP, and Punjab, with the Akali Dal.

Its failure to get the support of even a single opposition MP during its 13-day rule at the Centre was a clear signal for the BJP leadership to work out a new strategy to end this politics of untouchability. In the bargain it has had to compromise its strident hindutva agenda to some extent.

In Uttar Pradesh the second marriage of convenience of the BJP and the BSP is actually an alliance to two untouchables-the political untouchables and the social untouchables and the social untouchables. Though they represent the two extremes of the social spectrum, they have pulled a fast one on the "secular" combine of the United Front and the Congress.

Despite calling the alliance an unholy one, both the Congress and the United Front are worried about the new coalitions being spun off by the BJP. If the UF was formed mainly to keep the BJP out, the Congress decided to support it from outside for the same reason. But whether this has become counter-porductive is a question that embarrasses both the UF and the Congress now.

With hung assemblies and Lok Sabha becoming a reality, coalitions which began in our country four decades ago, are becoming an absolute political necessity. It is in this context the BSP-BJP coalition in UP assumes added significance.

It could signal the end of single-party rule at the Centre-even if the BJP gets a chance in the next general elections. The Congress, the only party to have such a dream, is going throught one of its worst phases. And the BJP is heartned by the way the 13 party minority government has survived with outside support for ten months. The record, through one of its worst phases. And the BJP is heartened by the way the 13-party minority government has survived with outside support for ten months. The record, though, is still held by V.P. Singh who led a 11-month long coalition with the outside support. The BJP would like to lead a political front of its own with like-minded regional parties.

The new coalition in UP also signifies another change in BJP politics. When the UF was formed after the general elections, the BJP's main allegation was the parties which opposed each other during theelections were coming together just for the sake of power. By doing the same in UP, the BJP has given up that argument forever. It is better to govern than be governed by an ideology is the new ethics of the party.

The last year was not at all good for the BJP. Though the party ruled at the Centre, it lasted jut 13 days, providing proof of its total isolation. The comfortable majority its leaders were expecting in UP assembly elections did not materialise. It lost its government in Gujarat and in Rajasthan and Delhi its governments had to face rough weather because of infighting. The only silver lining was Punjab where in alliance with the Akali Dal it came to power.

In fact, Punjab gave the desperate BJP a chance to come out of its isolation. UP followed. Now the BJp has made it a point to find out as many allies as possible from regional parties.

THE BJP has set its agenda. In the long run, its fight is not against the UF. Its main enemies are the Congress and the Left for obvious reasons. The BJP thinks that the Congress still has the potential to bounce back as the largest single party in the Lok Sabha. The Left is considered the biggest force in mobilising secular parties.

The Janata Dal, according to the BJP, is now confined to only Bihar, Karnataka and Orissa. In Bihar, the Dal is surviving only because of Laloo but he is in big trouble. In Orissa, the Congress has come back in a big way. In Karnataka, even Prime Minister Deve Gowda could not ensure a victory for his candidates in assembly byelections.

To the BJP the Congress is the biggest threat in the south as well as in the Hindi heartland. Despite all its unpopularity and cases against 23 of its leaders, the Congress is not in power in any of the four southern states, the BJP does not have much hope except in Karnataka.

In the north the Congress is in power only in Madhya Pradesh, Orissa and Himachal Pradesh and in some northeastern states. But the fact remains that the Congress is still the single largest party out of power. So the BJP is seeking out regional allies in states, like the Samata Party in Bihar, the HVP in Haryana and the Akali Dal in Punjab to fight the Congress.

In UP, as of now, the Congress is the biggest loser. It not only lost its electoral partner, the BSP, but also faced a division within its legislature party-- 23 MLAs were even prepared to defy the high command. This when the BJP-BSP leaders were busy reaching an understanding.

Indignant Congress leaders blamed the UF for the present situation, accusing it of pushing the BSP into the hands of the BJP, if only the UF had agreed to make Mayawati the chief minister, they said, this situation would not have arisen.

In the UF camp, Mulayam Singh Yadav is the biggest loser. Despite his Samajwadi Party having 109 MLAs in the assembly, he could not use this strength to form a coalition government. His ego would not allow anybody else to become chief minister; his stubborn attitude towards the BSP proved to be the main stumbling block.

Mulayam even alleged that the coalition was a conspiracy hatched by some external forces to create turmoil in the country with the help of communal and casteist elements. The only consolation for him is that this coalition is bound to collapse under the weight of its own contradictions.

For the UF parties, the BJP-BSP alliance is another reminder of the need to strengthen the anti-BJP forces. And perhaps in the last 10 months of its existence for the first time all the partners were in agreement on an issue. Parties like the CPI(M) had warned earlier itself that any weakening of the UF would benefit the BJP and lead to the growth of fundamentalist forces.

In the BJP, over the years there is a deliberate attempt to play down its upper caste card and project a probackward, minority image. It was seen when the party supported G.G. Swell in the Presidential elections, K.R. Narayan for the Vice-President's post, when it made Gopinath Munde the deputy chief minister of Maharashtra, Suraj Bhan the Deputy Speaker of the Lok Sabha and Kalyan Singh the chief minister candidate in UP. It even reflected in the RSS when Rajendra Singh emerged as the new chief.

The BSP, on the other hand, wants to shed the image of being a scheduled caste party. It has four Brahmin MLAs, besides Kayastas, Rajputs and Muslims in its ranks, thereby slowly making the party truly "Bajujan" Also, its alliance with the BJP is giving rise to a new force in UP where both the upper and lower castes are coming together.

The BJP now plans to extend the UP experiment to other states. Whether it will be able to manage it in all states only time will tell. But the danger is real for the Congress and the UF. In a three-way polarisation the winner will be the Big Brother having more powerful allies. A new phase of coalition politics is bound to emerge and stay too.

D. VIJAYAMOHAN

 

 

FULL SPEED AHEAD 
Mayawati wants to do in six months what others did in six years. But will she step down when the time comes?

The changes have been cosmetic so far. But they are pointers to what lies in store. Two days after Mayawati was sworn in chief minister, the railings on the pavements of Lucknow were being painted blue,the Bahujan Samaj Party's colour. The foundation stone for the Babasaheb Ambedkar garden is back on the land behind the Taj Mahal Hotel in Lucknow.

The foundation had been laid during Mayawati's previous tenure, but work stopped immediately after the her government fell. The stone itself mysteriously disappeared only to miraculously reappear at the same spot on the day Mayawati was sworn in.

At the traffic island opposite Lucknow's Begum Hazrat Mahal Park, named `Parivartan Chowk' during Mayawati's first term, work began on the construction of a memorial to Dr Ambedkar.

But it was too little too late for the vice-chairman of the Lucknow Development Authority (LDA), Lalit Verma, After a quick visit to Ambedhar Park and Parivartan Chowk, her very first inspection tour as chief minister, Mayawati replaced Verma with Kunwar Fateh Bahadur, until then chief of the Hardwar Development Authority.

Work on both the park and the memorial will be completed before April 14, Ambedkar's birth anniversary.

If on her tour she berated the LDA officials for abandoning the programmes she had begun, at her meetings with the press and at a formal meeting with principal secretaries and secretaries Mayawati was sweet reasonableness personified. "The law will be allowed to take its own course," was all she would say about bringing to book those involved in the ayurveda scam and the attack on Mayawati and other BSP legislators on June 2, 1995.

This was apparently not what Kanshi Ram meant when he repeatedly declared in his election speeches, and reiterated after the BSP-BJP pact was sealed, that those involved in these cases would be jailed.

There seems to have been a rethink, as reflected in the line taken by Bhagvat Pal, Uttar Pradesh unit president of the BSP. "We don't want to give anybody unnecessary publicity. We have not come to power with vendetta in our minds," he said. His reference was clearly to Mulayam Singh Yadav, the bete noire of both the BJP and the BSP.

The BSP leaders' thinking is that targeting Mulayam and his party might only earn the Samajwadi Party (SP) sympathy and swell its vote banks even further. "It is more important to concentrate on the problems of the people," maintained Mayawati at her first press conference.

The ayurveda scam may well prove to be her first test. A month ago, Governor Romesh Bhandari denied the CBI permission to prosecute Balram Yadav, health minister in Mulayam's cabinet, in connection with the scam. He referred to the report by the state law department, which stated that the case against Balram was not strong enough to permit prosecution. But the general belief was that Bhandari was shielding him at Mulayam's behest.

Now the CBI has sought permission again, with the CBI chief Joginder Singh formally requesting the state government to reconsider its decision. How the Mayawati government responds will be an indication of its attitude towards the SP.

The ayurveda scam relates to withdrawals of around Rs 31 crore by the Directorate of Ayurveda and Unani Medicine from the state treasury for alleged purchases. The withdrawals were not only far in excess of the budget alloted for the purpose, but also against fake bills; no medicines were actually supplied.

A host of health officials colluded with the bogus suppliers and cleared the bills. An alert officer in the finance department, S.A.T. Rizvi, noticed the huge withdrawals and stopped payment against further such bills. The CBI was called in and an inquiry instituted.

A host of officials and businessmen have been arrested and remain in jail, including Shivraj Singh, then director of ayurveda.

With Mayawati at the helm, it's tough times for the officialdom. The terror that she struck amongst the bureaucracy during her first term is still recalled with dread by the officers. Not only was she very rude to them, but senior offocers were often suspended on the basis of flimsy complaints.

The officers were so worked up that shortly after her government fell, the IAS association passed a resolution recommending that only the Centre--and not the state--should have the authority to suspend them.

Though nothing came of the resolution, Mayawati, in her first meeting with them, sought to reassure the officers that they would have her unstinted support.

"I am willing to listen to all your grievances and smoothen out any problems you face," she declared. "But in return I request you to ensure that any instructions sent are faithfully carried out." She promised that performance, and not caste or creed, would be the basis of her evalution.

Reffering to the rotational sytem of chief ministership, by which she will yield her place to a BJP nominee after six months, she maintained: "I want to get done in six months what others have done in six years."

Can her assertions be taken at face value? In less than a week since her swearing in, she has transferred over 125 officers including 52 IAS and 56 IPS personnel. Most of the officers manning key posts under the Bhandari regime have been moved out, and the new incumbents are mostly those who held these posts during her earlier tenure.

Even before she was sworn in she brought back Rohit Nandan as director of information, replacing Anoop Pandey, and Kashmira Singh as the DIG, LUcknow range, in place of Shelja Kant Mishra. A day later, P.L. Punia and Net Ram were back as principal secretary and secretary to the chief minister. Harish Chandra Gupta returned as principal secretary, home, while Ashok KUmar was posted as district magistrate in her home district, Bijnore.

There is intense speculation that both Chief Secretary Brajendra Sahay and the Director-General of Police Haridas Rao, will also soon have to make way for her trusted lieutenants.

Why this unseemly haste to reorganise the administration? Said SP state president Ram Saran Das: "It is clear that the BSP and BJP leaders themselves don't expect this government to last long. That is why they are putting their favoured officers in the right places, so as to be prepared for an early election!"

Indeed, one of the main compulsions which forced the BJP and the BSP to come together was the fear that the next election--which all agree are not far away--would be held under President's rule, which effectively meant the rule of Mulayam.

All the parties, SP excluded, agreed that Governor Bhandari had allowed Mulayam to rule the state by proxy, and posted officials supportive of Mulayam in all key positions. This, they felt, would have proved an enormous advantage to the SP in the next elections.

The BSP-BJP pact has thwarted Mulayam, but the mood in the BJP camp remains subdued. The BSP cadres, however, are brimming with enthusiasm, quite unmindful of the climbdown by their leaders, who had initially insisted that they would accept only outside support. On the day fo the swearing in the BSP's blue flag fluttered everywhere. while the BJP's green and saffron was hardly to be seen.

Former BJP chief minister Kalyan Singh's stony silence in the first few days after the coalitions was formed, proved so embarrassing that he was prevailed upon to hold a press conference indicating his acquiescence with the developments.

"The BJP-BSP coalition is a unique experiment which will bring about the much needed political stability to the state," said Kalyan Singh who had been dead against tying up with the BSP ever since the poll results were known in October.

Reminded that he had accused Mayawati of amassing Rs 144 crore through transfers and postings during her first term, he could only plead, "Let bygones be bygones."

While Kalyan Singh himself gave away nothing, some of his supporters were not so discreet. A BJP MLA belonging to Kalyan Singh's Lodni caste suggested that the coalition was huriedly wrought by the BJP central leadership in a deliberate bid to clip Kalyan Singh's wings.

He pointed to the revolt in the UP Congress unit a day before the BJP-BSP pact was finalised, and claimed that the whole purpose of the split had been to offer support to the BJP in forming a government with Kalyan Singh as the chief minister.

"With the support of this Congress faction, and a few independents, we would have managed a majority," the MLA maintained. "But the upper caste lobby in the party did not want to see Kkalyan Singh triumph. Hence the hasty deal with the BSP."

According to him, Kanshi Ram realised that once the BJP formed the government, he would lose his bargaining position and might not even be able to hold on to all his MLAs.

Conversely, others in the BJP insist that even with partial Congress support, the numbers would never have added up to a clear majority.

"Given Bhandari's attitude to the BJP, he would never have called us even if we were one short of a majority," averred a BJP leader. According to him, a major success for the BJP has been the installation of its own man as speaker.

With the Speaker under their control, some BJP Leaders are already toying with the idea of wooing away a section of the BSP and forming a government on their own with the support of the breakaway Congress group. But with the differences within the state Congress having been smoothed over, this alternative may no longer be feasible.

The SP has undoubtedly suffered a setback with the BJP and the BSP coming together. "But in the long run it will be a blessing for us," insisted Ram Saran Das.

"The BSP's opportunistic nature should have been apparent to the voters when it took the BJP's support last time to form the government. But this alliance will convince them that the BSP is not to be trusted." he said.

The SP leadership is convinced that the Muslim vote will now consolidate entirely behind it; with the Congress marginalised it can project itself as the sole 'secular' alternative.

SP leaders admitted that Kanshi Ram's wooing of the Muslim vote before the assembly polls--he even got the support of Imam Bukhari of Delhi's Jama Masjid and a few other Muslim leaders--did affect their party.

According to them, around 30 per cent of the Muslim vote shifted to the BSP, leading to the BJP winning around 40 constituencies because of the split in the Muslim votes. The SP leaders are convinced that the Muslims will never again trust the BSP.

Further, the pact has effectively silenced those within the United Front who were advocating closer ties with the BSP, and blaming Mulayam's intransigence for the continuation of President's rule in the state.

Prime Minister Deve Gowda's spirited defence of Mulayam at his Allahabad rally on March 21, where he declared that the UF "would live and die with Mulayam", has established the SP's imporatance within the UF as far as UP is concerned.

And Mulayam sounded a note of warning to the new government during his visit to Lucknow on March 23. At a speech to mark Lohia's birth anniversary, he cautioned it against being vindictive towards his workers. "We no longer have to explain. Everything is clear now before the people's eyes," he declared.

But for the time being the biggest gainer is the BSP. With just 67 MLAs, in a repetition of 1995, it is once again ruling the state. The distribution of portfolios shows that all the important ones, including home and finance, have been retained by the party. The actual modalities of transfer of power from Mayawati to a BJP chief minister remain vogue. It is not even certain whether Mayawati will step down when the time comes. But BSP men insist that the experiment will work.

DEBASHISH MUKERJI

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