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Vajpayee Govt may fall any time, says Sonia

Congress president Sonia Gandhi on Friday asserted that the Vajpayee government may ``fall any time'' and that her party would not ``stand and watch''. This is seen as a clear signal that she may have ``made up her mind'' to bring down the BJP- led government.

Her speech at Davangere in Karnataka has electrified the political situation and hotted up the Lok Sabha numbers game. Doubts are being raised whether the government will be able to pass its second budget, due to be presented on February 27. The speculation now is whether the government will be brought down on the money Bill in March or April, or even earlier.

Analysts say the process that began to snowball after the BJP's poll debacle in three crucial states last November could soon culminate in the government's fall. In such an event, will a Congress-led government emerge or will the forces rallying against the Vajpayee government opt for a non-Congress leader?

Using strong words, Ms Gandhi told a public rally in the Karnataka town that the BJP and its government were encouraging ``competitive communalism'', trying to outdo one another in targeting minorities, resulting in brutal killings and destruction of properties. ``The BJP could not absolve itself of this shameless irresponsibility,'' she said.

She termed the coalition government at the Centre as ``shaky and unprincipled'' and announced a nation-wide stir to replace it with ``a stable, sensible government.'' Although senior Congressmen have been insisting that ``she does not want to inherit the present mess'', they now think that she may set the ball rolling to bring down the government by first sending a green signal to one or more of the BJP's critical allies, possibly AIADMK, to announce the withdrawal of support to the Vajpayee government. It is the next move that they find difficult to guess.

Should Ms Gandhi choose to become the Prime Minister, she will no doubt have her party's full support. She is unlikely to nominate any of her partymen to lead the new anti-BJP phalanx.

At the same time, the Congress cannot take for granted that other parties would accept its leadership without reservation. Many permutations and combinations are likely to come up as the race hots up in the coming weeks.

In case, the forces aiming to bring down the Vajpayee government opt for the latter option, a name doing the rounds is that of former Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda who, some quarters say, may be willing to shoulder the responsibility. His meetings with Ms Gandhi and others and his rising public profile in recent weeks are considered significant.

The original dictum that the arithmetic of the 12th Lok Sabha permits only a BJP-led government no longer seems to hold true. The recurring problems within the alliance and the open display of anger on issues ranging from the attacks on Christians and the withdrawal of subsidy on urea to the Centre's ``failure'' to dismiss state governments headed by political rivals, have increased the prospects of the alliance cracking up.

Putting the two options in terms of statistics, a senior politician who claims to work for the realignment of forces says a government led by a non- Congress leader, with Congress participation or support from outside, could have the backing of a block of 287 Lok Sabha members - belonging to the Congress, AIADMK, Rashtriya Loktantrik Manch and several parties of the North-East, plus the Akalis, Trinamul Congress, National Conference and Telugu Desam which might switch sides. The Left might join in or support from outside. So would the Bahujan Samaj Party and other fence-sitters.

Congressmen may be willing to support an alternative government from outside. At the same time, the other parties might insist on Congress participation to minimise the chances of the party pulling the rug, the way it has done four times in the past. If Ms Gandhi or a Congressman were to lead the government, it will have to depend on outside support of the Left parties, the TDP and the Akalis. These parties have their own compulsions of state politics which preclude them from joining a Congress-led government. But, in that event, the experiment could be short-lived as has been the past experience. In ideological terms, such a government could ensure another realignment of forces and the BJP's return to power.

Opinion is divided on the timing of the move. The government still has many options to thwart a coordinated opposition action. Frustrating the passing of the budget, with its deep impact on the economy, may be looked upon with alarm by the business community. The coordination committee of the ruling alliance this week papered over most of the ticklish issues like the alleged role of Sangh Parivar members in fuelling the communal divide.

Jaya virtually snubs Fernandes

The BJP-led coalition government received another snub at the hands of AIADMK leader J. Jayalalitha on Friday. Defence minister George Fernandes, who came here as the government's emissary to get Ms Jayalalitha's endorsement to the joint statement that the coalition partners adopted on February 2, apparently went back empty handed. The AIADMK leader is reported to have refused to sign the statement when Mr Fernandes met her at her residence here for 45 minutes.

Later, speaking to reporters outside her residence, Mr Fernandes sought to downplay his meeting by saying that the joint statement was not important and that it was ``only a declaration of intent''.

An AIADMK statement termed Mr Fernandes' meeting with Ms Jayalalitha as a courtesy call. Meanwhile, in New Delhi, information and broadcasting minister Pramod Mahajan told newspersons when queried on the matter that "it would have been better if she had signed the letter''.

To a question, Mr Fernandes quipped: ``She was not present at the meeting (coordination committee meeting). There is no remote signing device. There are no fundamental objections on her part, only reservations.''

Ms Jayalalitha is reported to have expressed her reservations on certain points in the joint statement. One of the points pertains to the issue of discussing differences among coalition partners at the coordination committee meetings instead of airing them in public.

Referring to the issue, Mr Fernandes, in his capacity as convener of the committee, said: ``What is implied in the statement is not that the parties should not project their own future programme and agenda. What is implied is if we have problems, we should discuss at the meeting and not air them in the public. I do not think anybody differs on this. You must remember that Ms Jayalalitha was one of those instrumental in setting up the committee. She has expressed herself strongly as she always does. Mere expression of objection should not be read as confrontation.''

He described his talks with Ms Jayalalitha as good and said there were no complaints or grievances. Asked if he had conveyed any message from the Prime Minister, he said: ``I don't always bring specific messages from the Prime Minister.''

When pointed out that his visit to Ms Jayalalitha's Poes Garden residence always coincided with a threat issued by her, Mr Fernandes said the question was unfair to both her and himself.

On Tamil Nadu chief minister M. Karunanidhi's allegation that the Centre was influencing the judiciary to help Ms Jayalalitha in her corruption cases, he said: ``Officials of the judiciary can never be pressured by anybody in this country.''

 

Sebi plans action over Ranbaxy bonus issue

Securities & Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has decided to take "appropriate action" against Rs 1,400 crore (Rs 100 crore = Rs 1 billion) Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd, finding the pharmaceutical major prima facie guilty of violating the markets regulator's guidelines on bonus issues.

In the meantime, it has directed stock exchanges to go ahead with the listing of the bonus shares in the interest of the common investors. However, according to sources in Ludhiana Stock Exchange (LSE), Sebi has written to the bourse saying that the bonus shares of the promoters and their associates will not be allowed to be disposed of until the markets regulator gives its clearance.

Capital markets experts point out that the "appropriate action" by Sebi would be under its enforcing powers, which include prosecution, suspension or cancellation of registration, monetary penalty or directions.

The Ranbaxy bonus issue imbroglio came to Sebi as Bombay Stock Exchange, Delhi Stock Exchange and LSE declined to list the bonus shares until Ranbaxy attained a clean chit from Sebi over its alleged over-stepping of the six-month deadline for "implementation" of bonus issues.

The 1:1 bonus shares issue was approved by the Ranbaxy board on June 9, 1998, and cleared by its shareholders at the annual general meeting on August 27, 1998. The stock exchanges have pointed out that Ranbaxy did not complete the despatch of the bonus shares within the specified period, which ended on December 8, 1998. This was a violation of the Sebi guidelines.

The Sebi guidelines state: "A company which announces its bonus issue after the approval of the board of directors must implement the proposals within a period of six months from the date of such approval and shall not have the option of changing the decision."

However, Ranbaxy has taken the stand that the guidelines require that implementation of the bonus issue be started within the specified period and not necessarily completed. It claims to have submitted legal opinion in support of its stand.

 

 

Pak get dose of own medicine from spin twins

They say form is temporary and class is permanent. Pakistan were sure that their current batting form was instrumental in suppressing their class, as they found themselves in a spot on the second day of the second Pepsi Test against India here today.

Even talented batsmen look ordinary when out of form. They see fears everywhere -- spin, pace and pitch. It was Pakistan's misfortunes that they had one batsman too many with doubts aplenty.

It was a contest between a disciplined Indian spin attack and an unpredictable Pakistani batting. Anil Kumble, a thinking leg-spinner, was the first to exploit fears in the batsmen's minds. Even in-form batsmen do not find it easy scoring freely against his accurate bowling. Pakistan's batsmen found him too difficult to read. Kumble was responsible for putting Pakistan in a pressure situation, doing them in more by deception than by turn. His awkward bounce on a few occasions only increased doubts in batsmen's minds.

He bowled intelligently throughout the innings, capturing three key middle-order wickets to ensure a handsome 80-run lead for India. It is now up to Indian batsmen to press home the advantage given by their bowlers. The home team were 46 for one in their second innings. Opener Laxman was again beaten and bowled by Wasim Akram's inswinging delivery.

Kumble's triple strike encouraged off-spinner Harbahjan Singh, thrashed by the visiting batsmen in a three-day match at Gwalior last month. Harbhajan bowled tidily when pressure was on batsmen, not striving to do what was beyond him. His three-wicket haul will immensely boost his confidence. It was not only spin, but also seam that played a part in Pakistan's downfall. Venkatesh Prasad finished with two wickets and Javagal Srinath with one, only to highlight that something was seriously wrong with Pakistani batsmen's form.

True, it was not easy batting on this wicket, where the ball kept low. There was always a danger of being trapped lbw. As many as seven have fallen in this manner in two innings. But, it was inconsistent batting more than the low bounce that put pressure on Pakistan.

Inzamam-ul-Haq was the lone batsman to show the confidence required to successfully play the Indian attack. He was the batsman in form, scoring consistently on this tour. However, it was his arrogance which led to his dismissal.

Having struck three fours in a Harbhajan over, he looked in the same aggressive mood against Kumble, without realising that the bowler had changed ends and was bowling his first over. It was the day when Pakistan were let down by their in-form batsmen.

A dose of spin was not good for Pakistani batsmen's stomachs. Time was when Indian and Pakistani batsmen were renowned not for only playing, but also dominating spinners all over the world. It was off-spinner Saqlain Mushtaq who had exposed the Indian batting limitations yesterday. Pakistan got a dose of their medicine this day, the bowler being Kumble.

Spinners have so far called the shots in the current series between the teams with inconsistent batting. When Australian leg-spinner Shane Warne was tying batsmen into knots, Salim Malik was one of the few to unravel the mystery during the 1994 home series. Times have changed. Or, more precisely, the current batting form of the Pakistani and Indian teams has undergone a major change. Malik was not at his best in the current series. One had seen many better innings than the one he played here.

Those who say that there are only a few quality spinners in the game these days forget that the standards of batting have declined alarmingly. Form is the first casualty when batsmen play day in, day out. It is difficult to maintain consistency. Some of the key Pakistani batsmen have so far looked woefully out of touch. They are struggling more with themselves than with the rival attack. Look at opener Saeed Anwar, who had aimed at scoring a triple-century against India on this tour. He has managed just 36 in five innings. A typical case of a talented batsman in search of his form. Anwar batted this morning as a struggling man would have. Unsure of his footwork, he chased a Prasad delivery leaving him.

Ijaz Ahmed was the other batsman trying to regain his form, having flopped in each innings of the opening Test at Chennai. He was surprised more by the bounce than by the turn of a Kumble delivery, offering a simple catch to Rahul Dravid at silly-point.

Pakistan failed to find batsmen with right form and temperament in the first innings. Shahid Afridi is one of those batsmen who look good attacking rather than defending. He is at his best when he tries to dominate bowling. He greeted Kumble with two sixes in the bowler's first over. However, he was not expected to play a long innings. To do so, one requires patience. Afridi was short of it. And, so were many of his team-mates.

 

 

Hingis triumphs over Graf

MARTINA HINGIS defeated Steffi Graf for the first time on the German's favourite fast surface here today to reach the semi-finals of the Toray Pan Pacific Open. The Swiss teenager, whose only win in the past seven encounters with Graf came on clay at the 1996 Italian Open, proved she is now the better player with a 3-6, 6-2, 6-4 victory.

Hingis won the 1997 final here by default after Graf withdrew with a knee injury. Since then, they have played only once, with Graf winning in three sets at Philadelphia in November. "I was a different player today from when I was in the other matches before, especially in Philadelphia, I lost 6-0 in the third set," said Hingis.

"When I was young, she was killing me all the time. I was 15 years old, I was like a little girl playing her, number one in the world. But I think I'm a different player, a different person."

"My record against her was 1-6, and now 2-6. Good!," added Hingis with a laugh. The fifth-seeded Graf went a service break up to lead 2-1 and then 3-1 in the final set, but the German appeared to be tire, calling for help at the beginning of the sixth game.

"I started to get cramps at 3-1. At that time, I knew already that it was going to be difficult to finish the match," said Graf after the 112-minute battle. Graf eventually lost her serve to be tied at three-all as Hingis fired a sizzling forehand for a winner on her advantage point.

With Hingis leading 5-4 in the 10th game, Graf received medical treatment to her thigh at court side, but she never recovered her form, falling an easy prey to surrender the match on her forehand error.

But Graf added she would be all right when she takes part in her next tournament at Hannover starting February 15. Defending champion Lindsay Davenport crashed to South Africa's Amanda Coetzer in the other quarter-final. The American top seed lost 6-2, 4-6, 3-6 to the seventh seed.

Monica Seles of the United States also moved into the semi-finals crushing Russian teenager Anna Kournikova 7-5, 6-3 to set up a clash with South Africa’s Amanda Coetzer.

 

 

Senate disallows calling Lewinsky for testimony

As expected, the Senate voted 70 to 30 yesterday to disallow Monica Lewinsky being called to testify in person in President Clinton’s impeachment trial. Thirty of the 55 Senate Republicans split with their party, opposing the plan to bring Lewinsky to the well of the House.

Recognising the mood of the Senate, the House prosecutors did not even try to call other witnesses. The White House was quite content not to call witnesses of its own. Apart from the fact that many Senators, even on the Republican side, are tired of the interminable impeachment process, the decision not to call Lewinsky as a live witness also had a lot to do with poll revelations of the public mind. In a secret survey organised by the Republican Party, it was found that the Democrats would have a 7 per cent edge if elections were to be held now.

Besides, a significant number of Republican governors have been expressing their concern about the erosion in the popularity of the party as a result of the public perception that it had become a party with a single-point “get Clinton’’ agenda, as opposed to the Democrats who were concentrating on the people’s issues.

In another important vote, the Senate decided, 62 to 38, to allow the showing of “all or parts’’ of the videotaped depositions of Lewinsky, as well as of the other two witnesses—Clinton friend Vernon Jordan Jr., and White House aide Sidney Blumenthal. A total of nine Democrats joined the Republicans in voting to show the tapes in the Senate chamber.

Two Republicans, Senators James Jeffords of Vermont and Olympia Snowe of Maine, joined the Democrats. The Republicans also appeared to have pulled back from an idea strongly mooted by some of them over the past week of passing a “findings of fact’’ resolution that would have accused Clinton of wrongdoing without finding him guilty. Such a resolution would only have required a simple majority of 51 votes.

The way is now clear for a quick resolution of the trial. The Senate will hear closing arguments from the House prosecutors and White House counsel on Monday. Deliberations would begin on Tuesday.

 

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